The Fog of War: How to Lead Through Uncertain Times

If certainty in business ever actually existed, it is now a luxury of the past. Changing geopolitical conditions are impacting supply chains and customer confidence while increasing the cost of doing business. Another outcome of this volatility is anxiety and confusion among workers.

As leaders, we are wired to provide answers. We are often hired for our vision and rewarded for our clarity. But what happens when the data stops making sense? What happens when supply chains break, markets invert, or your team’s biggest fear is simply not knowing what comes next?

In these moments, the old playbook—"set a five-year plan and execute"—becomes not just useless, but potentially dangerous.

Over the last 20 years, I've studied (and lived through) how executive teams perform under extreme volatility. The leaders who succeed don’t try to be the person with all the answers. Instead, they become the person who holds the space for the right questions.

So what separates the leaders who steady their organisations from those who become overwhelmed by uncertainty? In my experience, they tend to adopt three shifts in mindset and behaviour: how they make decisions, how they create clarity, and how they communicate.

Tips the Best Leaders Use to Handle Uncertainty

1. Shift From "Optimal" to "Sufficient"

   In stable times, we chase the perfect decision. In turbulent times, perfection can be the enemy of survival. A useful strategy to consider in times of uncertainty is the 70% Rule. Former US Secretary of State Colin Powell famously said that once you have 40% of the intelligence, you make a guess; once you have 70%, you must make a decision. Waiting for 100% certainty in a crisis often means you’ve waited too long. Sometimes we simply need to accept that we are making decisions with incomplete data.
   
   During crises, leaders would do well to frame their decisions as hypotheses. For example: "We believe X will happen, so we will do Y for the next two weeks and then review."
   
   Ask your team: "If this decision is wrong, how quickly can we reverse it?" If the answer is "easily," move fast. If the answer is "never," slow down.
   
   

2. Replace "Control" With "Constraints"

   You cannot control war, the economy, or the decisions of world leaders. When you try to control the uncontrollable, you create anxiety. Instead, control the boundaries. Stop micromanaging the route your team takes; start clarifying the edges of the road. Define the "No-Go" zones and be crystal clear about what cannot change (e.g., safety, ethical standards, and core values).
   
   

3. Empower the Edges

   Within those guardrails, give your team the autonomy to solve problems. Tell them: "The goal is to keep revenue positive. The constraint is that we cannot lay off staff. Let's work out how."
   
   

4. Stop Pretending "All Is Well" and Start Describing Reality"

   The worst thing you can say in a crisis is "Don't worry, everything will be fine." It's a lie, and your team knows it. False positivity erodes trust faster than bad news. Instead say, "This is confusing. We don't have the answers yet, but we will figure out the next steps together." This validation relieves the pressure on leaders to pretend.
   
   In calmer times, you share the 12-month vision. During turbulent times, put the focus on shorter-term priorities:

   • Week 1: Here is what we are doing today.
   • Week 2: Here is what we are watching next week.
   • Week 3: Here are the trends we see.
   Uncertainty hates a vacuum. If you don't know something, say "I don't know," but immediately add, "I will ask the CFO and let you know by 2 PM." Silence is the only unforgivable sin right now.

The bottom line for leaders is to remember that, in times of uncertainty, your team doesn't need a hero with a crystal ball. They need a calm, credible anchor. They need you to say:
"I don't know when the storm ends, but I know how we'll navigate the next hour. We will watch the data. We will protect each other. And we will change our minds as soon as the facts change."

About the Author

Clive Lloyd is an Australian psychologist who assists high-hazard organisations to improve their safety performance through the development of trust and psychological safety. He is a director and principal consultant with GYST and developer of the acclaimed CareFactor Program.

Clive was recently named among the Top 5 Global thought leaders and influencers on Health & Safety by Thinkers360. He is the author of the Amazon best-selling book "Next Generation Safety Leadership: From Compliance to Care".